USD/JPY: LDP election in focus today – OCBC

LDP lawmakers will gather at party HQ and voting starts at noon (SGT).  Pair was last at 143.24, OCBC FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Bullish momentum on daily chart intact

“Lawmakers will cast 367 votes, while rank-and-file members will cast 368 votes (to represent the party’s membership base of approx. 1.1mil). By 120pm (SGT), results of the first round will be announced. If noone wins a majority, a run-off will be held between the top 2 candidates. In the run-off, each lawmaker gets one vote but the share of rank-and-file will drop to 47. The final winner will be announced at 230pm (SGT).”

“9 candidates are fighting for that one position and polls suggest these 3 candidates may garner the most votes: ex-environment minister, Shinjiro Koizumi, 43; economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, 63; and former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba, 67. Takaichi has been vocal against BoJ raising rates. The caution of her winning was likely one of the factors that saw USDJPY rather supported, contrary to other USDAXJs.”

“USD/JPY may see a kneejerk reaction down should the leadership not go to her. That said, BoJ going for a gradual pace of policy normalisation may see pace of USDJPY decline slow in the interim. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI rose. Risks skewed to the upside. Next resistance at 146.20 (50 DMA), 148 (38.2% fibo retracement of Jul high to Sep low). Support at 142 levels.”