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2 Mar 2015
Key events ahead: Eurozone CPI may print a better than expected figure – Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Signe Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, previews the key data releases ahead in the day, forecasting Eurozone HICP inflation to surprise to the upside by registering a -0.2%yoy print (consensus -0.4%yoy), and UK and US PMIs to decline slightly.
Key Quotes
“We expect euro area HICP inflation to increase to -0.2% y/y (consensus: -0.4% y/y) from -0.6% y/y in January mainly on the back of the rebound in the crude oil price in the past month. As usual core inflation deserves particular attention for possible second-round effects from the decline in the crude oil price and headline inflation.”
“Across Europe there will be focus on manufacturing PMIs. Most interesting will be the first estimates for Italy and Spain. In the UK we expect a slight decline but it should be remembered that the service PMI scheduled for release on Wednesday is more important and there we expect to see a slight improvement.”
“In the US the main event is the manufacturing ISM for February. The regional manufacturing surveys for February have been on the soft side, so we expect to see a slight decline.”
“There will also be considerable focus on the core PCE-inflation measure (Fed's preferred measure) for January after the larger than expected increase in CPI core. We expect the increase in core PCE to accelerate in January but it is too early to call a reversal of the downward trend in core inflation.”
“We look for a decline in Norwegian PMI.”
Key Quotes
“We expect euro area HICP inflation to increase to -0.2% y/y (consensus: -0.4% y/y) from -0.6% y/y in January mainly on the back of the rebound in the crude oil price in the past month. As usual core inflation deserves particular attention for possible second-round effects from the decline in the crude oil price and headline inflation.”
“Across Europe there will be focus on manufacturing PMIs. Most interesting will be the first estimates for Italy and Spain. In the UK we expect a slight decline but it should be remembered that the service PMI scheduled for release on Wednesday is more important and there we expect to see a slight improvement.”
“In the US the main event is the manufacturing ISM for February. The regional manufacturing surveys for February have been on the soft side, so we expect to see a slight decline.”
“There will also be considerable focus on the core PCE-inflation measure (Fed's preferred measure) for January after the larger than expected increase in CPI core. We expect the increase in core PCE to accelerate in January but it is too early to call a reversal of the downward trend in core inflation.”
“We look for a decline in Norwegian PMI.”