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18 Jul 2013
Flash: Sept 18 or Dec 18 most likely QE taper dates - Rabobank
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - There are four FOMC meetings in the remainder of 2013, but only two are accompanied by a press conference, notes Philip Marey, Senior US Strategist at Rabobank.
Marey thinks that "Given the Fed’s problems in getting its message across, it would be prudent to announce tapering at a meeting with press conference, which makes Sept 18 and Dec 18 the most likely announcement dates for the first taper."
Marey suspects that a pick up in U.S. economic data in the next two months would lead the Fed to taper in September. However, Marey is skeptical that would be the case due to the strength in recent data. What’s more, as Marey notes, "there is a lot of disagreement within the FOMC which could complicate matters going forward." Therefore, "we stick to our turn-of-the year forecast for the first taper for now, until the data or the Fed convince us to do otherwise" Marey added.
Marey thinks that "Given the Fed’s problems in getting its message across, it would be prudent to announce tapering at a meeting with press conference, which makes Sept 18 and Dec 18 the most likely announcement dates for the first taper."
Marey suspects that a pick up in U.S. economic data in the next two months would lead the Fed to taper in September. However, Marey is skeptical that would be the case due to the strength in recent data. What’s more, as Marey notes, "there is a lot of disagreement within the FOMC which could complicate matters going forward." Therefore, "we stick to our turn-of-the year forecast for the first taper for now, until the data or the Fed convince us to do otherwise" Marey added.