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14 Dec 2015
US dollar on the Eve of Lift-Off - BBH
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that the US dollar turned in a mixed performance in the week following the ECB's surprise and the healthy US jobs report. "In some ways, the greenback was like a fulcrum, not the driver."
Key Quotes:
"The dollar-bloc currencies and the Norwegian krona were on one side, and the euro, Swiss franc, yen, and sterling were on the other. The continued, and sharp drop in energy prices and commodity prices more generally, coupled with risk-off impulses spurred by equity market declines, and year-end position adjustment were the main considerations.
The US dollar's last leg up began in the middle of October and ran into early December. If there were pent-up corrective pressures, then given the direction and magnitude of recent moves, the pressures are less intense now, and by extension, after the likely FOMC rate hike. However, it is not clear from a technical perspective that the correction is over.
The recent losses carried the Dollar Index to the 50% retracement of the rally since mid-October. It held the level (97.15) almost to the tick. The 61.8% retracement is found near 96.35. The technical indicators (MACD, RSI, Stochastics) are consistent with this view.
The note of caution comes from the lower Bollinger Band, which is found near 97.30. However, with the 20-day moving average turning down, the lower band will also decline."
Key Quotes:
"The dollar-bloc currencies and the Norwegian krona were on one side, and the euro, Swiss franc, yen, and sterling were on the other. The continued, and sharp drop in energy prices and commodity prices more generally, coupled with risk-off impulses spurred by equity market declines, and year-end position adjustment were the main considerations.
The US dollar's last leg up began in the middle of October and ran into early December. If there were pent-up corrective pressures, then given the direction and magnitude of recent moves, the pressures are less intense now, and by extension, after the likely FOMC rate hike. However, it is not clear from a technical perspective that the correction is over.
The recent losses carried the Dollar Index to the 50% retracement of the rally since mid-October. It held the level (97.15) almost to the tick. The 61.8% retracement is found near 96.35. The technical indicators (MACD, RSI, Stochastics) are consistent with this view.
The note of caution comes from the lower Bollinger Band, which is found near 97.30. However, with the 20-day moving average turning down, the lower band will also decline."