EUR/JPY remains vulnerable – Commerzbank

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted the outlook on the cross still remains vulnerable.

Key Quotes

“EUR/JPY is consolidating its recent losses, following its move towards the 115.28/61.8% retracement of the move up from 2012. The market is oversold very near term and caution is warranted, our suspicion is that this may be the end of the downmove BUT we need more evidence”.

“We have a 13 count on the daily chart and the intraday day Elliott wave counts are suggesting that this is the end of the move, so extreme caution is warranted. Resistance is seen 119.70 (38.2% retracement) ahead of 120.00/120.82 (50% retracement of the most recent sell off), while capped here the market will remain directly offered. Above here lies the 122.80 2016 downtrend. Key resistance remains the 2014-2016 downtrend at 126.10”.