EUR/USD: a test of 1.2168 is not ruled out – Commerzbank

In opinion of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, the pair could still attempt a visit of the 1.2170 area.

Key Quotes

“EUR/USD last week’s high of 1.2092 was accompanied by a large divergence of the daily RSI. It now eroded the accelerated uptrend and targets the 5 month uptrend at 1.1798. While this second uptrend holds we remain unable to rule out an extension to the 50% retracement from the move down from the 2014 high at 1.2168 and the 1.2372 200 month ma, but if seen, that is expected to hold. It should be noted that we consider this to be the end phase of the bull trend”.

“Failure at the five month uptrend line will negate the up move and trigger losses to the mid-June high at 1.1296 and the more important 1.1110 end of May low”.