Australia: MIA consumer taints decent growth report - TDS

Australian Sep qtr GDP rose by +0.6%/qtr, marginally disappointing consensus but higher than TD’s post-trade forecast of +0.5%/qtr, explains the research team at TDS.

Key Quotes

“The AUD sank from $US0.761 to $US0.757 on the disappointment, but we remain medium -term AUD bulls as the underlying economy remains solid and the cash rate won’t remain at 1.5% forever.”

“After (upward) revisions, GDP expanded by 2.6% in 2016 (was 2.4%) and so our 2017 tracking is 2.3%. Our 2018 estimate is for marginally above-trend growth of 3%.”

“The RBA Board elected to keep the cash rate at 1.5%, and we see the Bank remaining on hold well into 2018.”

“After Oct retail sales yesterday (+0.5%/m) we turn to tomorrow’s Oct trade balance (TD +$A300m; mkt +$A1.4b). Our below-market trade forecast was shaped by the large jump in imports from China (Chinese exports to Australia surged).”