NZD/USD weakness compounded by US data and Fed expectations of upgraded rate projection, next week
- US dollar shorts get fidgety ahead of Fed expectations of upgraded rate projection.
- NZD/USD approaching the 0.7200 multi-month support.
The NZD is currently trading at around 0.7214 after declining approx 130 pips in the last 24 hours as the 2-year benchmark yields are at their highest since 2008. The Kiwi started its decline two days ago as the New Zealand GDP data came in below expected, in an immediate reaction the pair sold off more than 30 pips. On Friday NZD weakness was exacerbated by US dollar strength as prospects of Fed rate hikes next week and encouraging industrial data, JOLTS opening job and Michigan consumer sentiment index came all above expectation. For most market participants a rate hike next week is virtually a done deal, the question will be what happens after it.
NZD/USD weekly chart
The NZD/USD is sliding below the 200-period simple moving average as the week is coming to an end. 0.7300 and 0.7400 acted as strong resistance since the start of the year. The technical configuration would have us believe that bulls took their chance but they failed to break the 0.7400 level. Immediate support is seen at 0.7200 which is the low of the range of the last weeks, followed by 0.7100 with the 100-period simple moving average. If bulls can maintain the market above 0.7200, resistance is seen at 0.7400 key level followed by 0.7600.
NZD/USD daily chart
On the daily time frame, the NZD/USD made a triple top or arguably a head and shoulder pattern. The 0.7200 level is the strong support to look for as buyers have defended the level since January. The 200-period simple moving average is also not far from the key level so bears will need to have conviction to break through it. The prospects of four rate hikes from the Fed might give the bears the strength they need.