EUR/USD rally expected to struggle around 1.2440 – Commerzbank

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, suggested the pair’s upside could struggle in the 1.2440 area.

Key Quotes

“EUR/USD continues to recover within its range and it will shortly encounter its near term resistance line at 1.2444. We look for the rally to struggle here and fail. It should then head back to the 1.2257 2017-2018 uptrend and the 1.2218 low from last week. We preferably need to see a close below the 1.2155 Feb 2018 low to confirm a break down/top formation”.

“Intraday Elliott wave counts are positive but suggest that the rally will fail well ahead of the 1.2556 February high and the 1.2622 long term downtrend”.

“Above the 2008-2018 resistance line at 1.2622 lies the 1.3190 50% retracement of the move down from 2008 (not favoured)”.