The RBI is forecasted to cut rates once again in Q4 – UOB

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could cut rates by another 25 bps at some point in Q4 2019, suggested Researchers at UOB Group in the latest Quarterly Global Outlook.

Key Quotes

“We downgraded our full-year growth outlook to 6.0%, down from an initial outlook of 6.8%, below RBI’s growth forecast of 6.9%”.

“We view inflation to average 3.4% in H2 2019/20, at the lower bound of RBI’s H2 outlook range of 3.4 – 3.7%”.

“Should this come to pass, India’s inflation rate will average 3.2% in FY2019/20, the lowest since FY 1978/79. RBI has cut rates by a cumulative 110 bps since the year started. On the back of softer growth and inflation environment seen to-date, we pencil another 25bps rate cut in 4Q19”.