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12 Jun 2014
Australian jobs: High potential to surprise - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, walks us through the main events for Thursday, in which all the focus is now shifted to Australia's jobs report.
Key Quotes
"After averaging 28.5K per month from Feb to Apr, we expect a more typical 17k gain in Australia’s total employment in May (11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK). The strong job creation in 2014 so far is best seen as catch-up after a dismal H2 2013, where employment averaged -2k. The median forecast is 10k but as usual there is a wide range of forecasts, from +5k to +25k. Westpac is in line with the market on the unemployment rate however, expecting an uptick in the participation rate to 64.8%, keeping the jobless rate steady at 5.8%. This series always has the potential to surprise, so has moved AUD by at least 0.4% in 5 of the past 6 releases."
"The Bank of Korea is expected by every forecaster to hold steady at 2.5% (around 11am Syd/9am Sing/HK), with some interest in the statement. Bank Indonesia announces its policy review later in the day, with a BI official saying yesterday that Indonesia’s current account deficit did not allow for looser monetary policy at the moment. So a 7.5% benchmark rate seems assured."
"In Europe we will see the ECB monthly report, for discussion on last week’s decision but no new policy information. April EZ industrial production is also due. The week’s most important US data release is today: May retail sales. After a very muted 0.1% total, zero ex-autos reading in April, consensus is for a May rebound of 0.6% m/m overall, 0.4% on each of the various ‘core’ measures. Weekly jobless claims and Apr business inventories are also due."
Key Quotes
"After averaging 28.5K per month from Feb to Apr, we expect a more typical 17k gain in Australia’s total employment in May (11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK). The strong job creation in 2014 so far is best seen as catch-up after a dismal H2 2013, where employment averaged -2k. The median forecast is 10k but as usual there is a wide range of forecasts, from +5k to +25k. Westpac is in line with the market on the unemployment rate however, expecting an uptick in the participation rate to 64.8%, keeping the jobless rate steady at 5.8%. This series always has the potential to surprise, so has moved AUD by at least 0.4% in 5 of the past 6 releases."
"The Bank of Korea is expected by every forecaster to hold steady at 2.5% (around 11am Syd/9am Sing/HK), with some interest in the statement. Bank Indonesia announces its policy review later in the day, with a BI official saying yesterday that Indonesia’s current account deficit did not allow for looser monetary policy at the moment. So a 7.5% benchmark rate seems assured."
"In Europe we will see the ECB monthly report, for discussion on last week’s decision but no new policy information. April EZ industrial production is also due. The week’s most important US data release is today: May retail sales. After a very muted 0.1% total, zero ex-autos reading in April, consensus is for a May rebound of 0.6% m/m overall, 0.4% on each of the various ‘core’ measures. Weekly jobless claims and Apr business inventories are also due."