Coronavirus pandemic poses bigger risk to the US economic recovery – Reuters poll

According to the latest Reuters poll of economists, the US economic recovery is faltering, as the coronavirus pandemic poses a bigger risk than the prolonged and disputed presidential election outcome.

Key findings

“Asked if their forecasts were based on the recent progress of a COVID-19 vaccine, 57 economists who responded to a separate question were almost evenly split, suggesting the tonic for Wall Street sentiment is not yet seen as a full public health and an economic turning point.” 

“Gross domestic product (GDP) was forecast to grow an annualized 3.7% this quarter and 3.0% in Q1, a downgrade from 4.0% and 3.7%, respectively, predicted last month.”

“This year, the world’s largest economy was forecast to shrink 3.6%, according to the poll of 102 economists. In 2021 and 2022 the consensus was for growth of 3.8% and 2.9%, respectively.”

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